More than 75% of Vermont is “abnormally dry,” and a quarter of the state is in a drought, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

As of last week, drought conditions were worst in southern Vermont, where much of Rutland, Windsor, Bennington and Windham counties were experiencing “moderate drought,” according to the Drought Monitor, a University of Nebraska-Lincoln collaboration with federal agencies. The southern tip of Bennington and Windham counties was under “severe drought.”

Vermont’s drought is less intense than what regions farther south are facing. Large swaths of Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are under severe drought, and southern New Jersey has reached “extreme drought” levels, according to the data.

The dry conditions in Vermont have elevated the state’s fire risk. On Monday, the state Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation extended a ban on debris burning in southern Vermont that has been in place since October 28, citing the dangerous combination of dry weather and high wind.

The National Weather Service has issued several “red flag” warnings for fire hazards in recent weeks, most recently on Saturday. Rebecca Duell, a meteorologist for the weather service, said the risk has since ebbed, as winds have died down and humidity has risen. 

She confirmed, however, that the amount of rainfall Vermont has received is well below average for this time of year. Burlington, for example, has received 0.27 inches of rainfall so far in November — compared to an average of 1.66 inches between 1990 and 2020. 

In drought-stricken Bennington, the difference between its wet summer and dry fall has been stark. The town received 16 inches of rain between June and August, significantly above the average of 12.6 inches. Between September and November 18, it received just 3.7 inches of rain, well below the average of more than 9 inches. 

There is wet weather in the forecast for much of the state, Duell said. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain are expected in parts of Vermont from Thursday to Saturday, with the potential for snow in the higher elevations. 

That wet weather should moisten the ground and vegetation, further reducing the state’s fire risk. But whether or not it will lift Vermont out of drought is “hard to say at this point,” Duell said.